election update – week 3

What to look out for on election night

In this final week, we’ve seen contrasting strategies from Sunak and Starmer. The Prime Minister is focusing his time in once safe Conservative seats, while the Labour Leader has been setting his sights high in visiting those bellwether seats Labour must win if it is to win big, and those seats it has never previously had a chance of winning.

We know where we’ll be on Thursday: tapping away at our keyboards finalising clients’ post General Election engagement plans, but where will the Party Leaders be? The obvious answer would be to say that, if the polls are correct, it really doesn’t matter where the Prime Minister goes, whether that be at home in his constituency, lending a hand in a neighbouring marginal like Bishop Auckland or Darlington, or supporting supporting candidates in the South East closer to the television studios of SW1.

The decision is clearly easier for Sir Keir Starmer, whose Holborn and St Pancras constituency affords him access to marginal seats in London Labour is looking likely to win and to his party machine. Regardless, given the direction of the polls, it’s likely that come Friday evening, he’ll be unpacking his bags in Number 10 Downing Street.

As the results roll from early Friday morning, a number of seats will be indicators of how the final results will shape up. Notwithstanding the exit poll, which has a solid track record, there are a number of worthwhile results to keep your eye on. This week’s Election Update gives you some suggestions.

Adam Thomas
Director and Head of Public Affairs

The seats to watch on Thursday night

The seats to give Labour a majority: If you visualise all the seats in a line, sorted by their likelihood to turn Labour, number 326 granting their majority is the Cities of London and Westminster (according to Electoral Calculus), which has never returned a Labour MP. There are also the classic ‘bellwether’ constituencies to keep an eye on: Derby North, Crawley, Nuneaton, Tamworth, and Gloucester. Winning in any one of these early in the evening will indicate a Labour victory.

Disaster zone for the Tories: The big question is: just how bad it will be for the Conservatives? Between 2am and 3am it’s expected that South West Cambridgeshire and Aldershot will give their result. Defending majorities of 13,867 and 16,689, either being won by Labour will suggest they are set for a landslide victory. After that, well, it’s anyone’s guess how bad it’ll be.

The impact of Reform UK: Reform’s ambitions are limited: Nigel Farage in Clacton, Lee Anderson in Ashfield, Richard Tice in Boston and Skegness (the highest Brexit voting constituency in the UK), and a remote chance for Ben Habib in Wellingborough. Any more than that is unlikely. The real impact will be how much the vote on the right splits and thus truly placing the Tories in the ‘disaster zone.’

Scottish Labour takes back Glasgow: The battle between the SNP and Labour is neck and neck, but Labour is on course to make substantial gains. Brown-era Cabinet Minister Douglas Alexander is standing in East Lothian, but the Glasgow seats will be worth watching out for, given their totemic importance to Labour. Many of these seats are held by the SNP on majorities of a few thousand votes, so would be the first to turn Labour if the SNP’s support is diminished. The SNP’s safest seat, Dundee Central, is due to report at 2am – if that turns Labour it will suggest a near-wipeout for the Scot Nats.

The last Conservative standing in Wales: The Conservatives are looking to avoid a complete wipeout in Wales. The largest Tory majority in Wales is Montgomeryshire, now Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, where Craig Williams (recently embroiled in the betting scandal) is standing. Caerfyrddin, a largely Welsh-speaking area held by Tory Chief Whip Simon Hart since 2010, may go to Plaid Cymru. But other than that, all the other 12 Tory-held Welsh seats are projected to be Labour gains.

Northern Ireland and the UK’s most marginal seat: The DUP’s travails have continued this week with its former Leader being charged with further sex offences. This could boost the Alliance’s prospects in Northern Ireland, hoping to increase their current single seat on a non-sectarian, centrist appeal to middle class unionist voters. It’ll be interesting to see how Pat Cullen does, the former General Secretary of the Royal College of Nursing. Having announced a surprise candidacy for Sinn Féin, she’s contesting Fermanagh and South Tyrone which is held by the party on a majority of 57, the most marginal seat in the country.

Starmer’s baptism of fire on the world stage

Following his expected audience with The King and the offer of forming a government in his name, Sir Keir Starmer will have little time to pop the champagne and rest up. Indeed, having started unpacking in Downing Street, he’ll have to repack and set off for Washington to mark NATO’s 75th anniversary from Tuesday-Thursday, accompanied by his recently appointed Foreign and Defence Secretaries. Having been applauded for his efforts forging links into the Trump campaign and hedging Labour’s bets in anticipation of the American Election this November, will David Lammy be accompanying Sir Keir on his trip?
At the State Opening of Parliament on 17 July, Sir Keir will cap off a whirlwind two weeks at Blenheim Palace the following day, with the UK hosting the third European Political Community meeting. Labour have been clear in their desire to forge deeper relationships with their European allies, but will they be listening?
This baptism of fire will provide an early opportunity for the new Prime Minister to demonstrate his diplomatic prowess on the world stage, with the sustained coverage likely serving as his introduction to a domestic electorate who knows little about their new leader.

How will financial markets react to Labour’s likely supermajority?

Despite the Conservative Party spending the last week of the campaign warning voters of the dangers of a Labour supermajority, the prospect has not unsettled the financial markets, who are likely to react positively come 22:01 and the exit poll being announced. Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves’ ‘prawn cocktail offensive’ and commitment to responsible governance has reassured investors it seems, who will likely value the initial stability offered by Labour’s large mandate.
While the FTSE 100 has fallen back from pre-election record highs in mid-May, only the shock of a weak Labour majority could lead to a significant drop. The new government will likely be given time by the markets to find its feet, although as the market’s reaction to Lizz Truss’ mini-Budget demonstrated, spending pledges seen to be beyond the UK’s means could cause turmoil. Much will depend on whether Labour’s spending reviews and reforms can lead to sustained economic growth.

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