The road to Scotland’s 2026 Election

This year, the SNP had its greatest electoral defeat in its hundred-year history, losing 38 seats in the UK Parliament, leaving them with only 9 Westminster MPs. Rocked by leadership changes, police investigations into their finances and a stalling independence campaign, the party faced an existential crisis. Six months later, they seem to have made an impressive comeback. With John Swinney as leader and Kate Forbes by his side, so far the Scottish Government has been able to unite a fractured party, bringing together a divided group of MSPs.

According to a recent Sunday Times Poll, the SNP is back up to 37% in the constituency vote, with Professor John Curtice saying this could be enough to give them 59 seats in Holyrood if reflected in Scotland’s elections in May 2026. This would deliver the party a fifth consecutive term in government, with only three seats less than they have now.

In contrast, Scottish Labour, who appeared to be on their way to power in Scotland following Starmer’s landslide election victory, are down 14 points from the party’s tally in July, with just 21% of Scots now saying they would vote for Labour on the constituency ballot in a Scottish Parliament election. The Labour leader, Anas Sarwar has had a tough six months, having been unable to untangle himself from decreasing approval ratings towards the Prime Minister and backlash towards the UK Government’s policies such as the two-child benefit cap. Furthermore, the threat of the other pro-independence party, Alba, has partly diminished for now whilst the party decides what direction to take following the death of its figurehead, Alex Salmond.

As a result, despite being in power in Scotland, in many ways the SNP has been able to act as more of an opposition party, gaining support by opposing particular policies of the UK Government. For example, the SNP has capitalised upon Labour’s more controversial measures including the two-child benefit cap and cuts to winter fuel payments, with the Scottish Government recently pledging to scrap the cap and restore the payments.

Coupled with this, no longer having the Scottish Greens in government has allowed Swinney and Forbes to implement a more pragmatic policy agenda, allowing them to make a much clearer pitch to win back support in rural communities. The Government’s u-turn in November on the proposed wood-burning stoves ban in new buildings, for example, demonstrates the different direction Swinney is taking compared to his predecessor.  

With the Scottish election set to take place in May 2026, next year and in particular the first 6 months, will be a great opportunity for organisations looking to inform policymaking in Scotland. The Scottish Government will be racing to complete a number of its initiatives as it becomes increasingly focused on measures that can help the SNP win back key parts of the Scottish electorate.

There is still a long way to go until May 2026 however, and it remains to be seen whether Swinney has just painted over the cracks or whether a change in perception is embedded. The candidate selection process next year will be a big test for the party, given many former MPs will be looking to challenge sitting MSPs for seats and has the potential to exacerbate division within the party.

At Luther, we help clients reach, inform and engage with policymakers and stakeholders in the UK Government and Parliament as well as the devolved administrations. If your organisation is looking to shape the political and policymaking landscape in advance of the Scottish election, please contact us at publicaffairs@luther.co.uk.